A Framework for Profitability-Focused Land Use Transitions Between Agriculture and Forestry: A Case Study of Latvia

Understanding when and where to shift land from agriculture to forestry is essential for designing sustainable land use strategies that align with climate, biodiversity, and rural development goals. However, traditional profitability comparisons rely on long-term discounting, which is highly sensitive to assumptions and often misaligned with the shorter-term decision-making horizons that are relevant for policymakers. This study presents a deposit-based framework that interprets annual timber biomass growth as accumulating economic value, enabling direct, per-hectare comparisons with yearly agricultural profits. The framework integrates parcel-level spatial data, land quality indicators, national statistics,…