A two-stage wiener process-based method for bearing remaining useful life prediction considering measurement uncertainty

Abstract To address the issue of significant prediction bias in remaining useful life (RUL) estimation caused by insufficient characterization of measurement uncertainty and stage-dependent degradation mechanisms in rolling bearings, this study proposes a two-stage Wiener process-based method incorporating measurement uncertainty. First, a two-stage Wiener process state-space model with change points is established, where stage-specific measurement noise terms are explicitly introduced in the observation equation to distinguish between degradation randomness and measurement uncertainty. Then, under the concept of the first passage time (FPT), the conditional probability density function and reliability…