Violent and non-violent death tolls for the Gaza conflict: new primary evidence from a population-representative field survey

High-quality mortality estimates are crucial for understanding the human cost of conflict. The Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) has provided regular updates to their violent death toll for the Gaza Strip following Oct 7, 2023, but these reports have attracted both criticism and support. Independent estimates of both violent and non-violent deaths were needed.

We conducted a population-representative household survey, the Gaza Mortality Survey, between Dec 30, 2024, and Jan 5, 2025. We surveyed 2000 households across 200 primary sampling units, documenting the vital status of 9729 household members as of Oct 6, 2023, plus newborns. The sample was stratified by dwelling type and Governorate of origin. We used raking procedures to adjust for demographic characteristics and calculated confidence intervals using Taylor series linearisation. Sampling occurred in accessible areas, with displaced populations representing inaccessible Governorates.