THE TRIDENT A Formal Factorization of Epistemic Coupling and Drift Detection Derivation, Formal Specification, and Applicability Conditions

This paper derives and formally specifies the Trident, a regime-bounded factorization of epistemic coupling designed to detect concealed drift between a model and its domain. Drift is defined as invisible decoupling: divergence of predictions from the domain without immediate detection. The Trident decomposes epistemic coupling into three necessary and sufficient conditions — Representation (variable sanctification), Correction (feedback adequacy), and Calibration (confidence proportionality) — and demonstrates both non-overlap and exhaustiveness of the resulting failure modes. The instrument distinguishes concealed failure from visible error, formalizes applicability conditions (observable state variables,…